Statistics
What is yield in betting and how do you read it?
Yield measures net profit relative to the total stake recorded in decided picks. It is expressed as a percentage. It puts a gain or loss in context, but comparisons are only useful when records follow the same formula and inclusion rules.
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How to calculate yield
Yield
Net profit ÷ total decided stake × 100
If decided picks have 100u of total stake and +6u net profit, yield is 6%. That summarises the sample: average profit was 0.06u per unit of recorded volume. It does not mean every pick won or that the next one will win.
Returning a stake after a void result is not profit. Tipsterline excludes void and pending picks from both the numerator and denominator. If a parlay wins with a void leg, its profit uses the odds of the non-void selections.
The same yield can describe very different volumes
| Record | Decided stake | Profit | Yield |
|---|---|---|---|
| A | 20u | +1u | 5% |
| B | 200u | +10u | 5% |
The second record has ten times the profit and ten times the volume. Looking only at units gained misses that difference. Looking only at yield misses how much was recorded. Read both to understand performance.
Volume is also different from the number of picks: 200u could be spread across many small picks or concentrated in a few large ones. That distribution changes how you interpret the record.
The difference between yield and ROI depends on the base
Imagine a hypothetical starting bankroll of 50u, a total decided stake of 200u and a profit of 10u. Dividing 10 by 200 gives 5%. Dividing 10 by 50 gives 20%. These calculations describe different relationships, so they do not contradict each other.
What is a good betting yield?
There is no universal percentage that certifies a tipster's quality. A positive number means profit within that sample and its rules. To interpret it, you also need the size of the record, odds, stake distribution, period and any excluded costs.
With few results, a single high-odds win can move the percentage considerably. More data lets you observe more streaks, but uncertainty and changing conditions remain. Past results never make future outcomes certain.
Common mistakes when comparing yield
- Comparing one account's best month with another's entire record.
- Averaging monthly percentages without weighting their stakes.
- Excluding losses or choosing only a favourable channel.
- Assuming published odds were available to every reader.
- Confusing a creator's record with a follower's net result.
To combine months, add their profits and stakes, then divide again. A month at +10% on 10u and another at −10% on 100u do not cancel out: together they produce −9u on 110u, approximately −8.18%.
Use yield as one part of the picture
Start with the overall figure, examine individual periods, then open the picks that explain the changes. This moves you from a summary label to the underlying record. It also helps you decide whether enough information is available to form a view.
Tipsterline publishes its methodology so that you can understand the percentage without relying on a screenshot or a sales promise.
Sources and methodology
Educational content for adults aged 18 and over. Examples are hypothetical. Past results do not guarantee future outcomes. Responsible gambling.
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