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Expected value (EV) calculator for sports bets
Compare the odds offered with your own probability estimate: expected value, implied probability and fair odds. Free educational calculator.
Local calculation; nothing is sent or stored. A positive EV only means the price beats YOUR estimate.
YOUR CALCULATION
- Expected value per bet
- +9.2
- EV per unit staked
- +9.2%
- Implied probability of the odds
- 47.62%
- Fair odds for your estimate
- 1.923
What expected value means
Expected value (EV) is what you would win or lose on average per bet if you could repeat it many times with the same probability. It compares the price offered (the odds) with how likely you think the outcome is. If your probability is higher than the implied probability of the odds, the EV is positive; if it is lower, it is negative.
EV = p × (decimal odds − 1) − (1 − p)
Implied probability = 1 / decimal odds
Fair odds = 1 / p
| Your probability | EV per bet | Reading |
|---|---|---|
| 45% | −5.50 | Price below your estimate |
| 47.6% | ≈ 0 | Break-even (implied probability) |
| 52% | +9.20 | Price above your estimate |
The calculation is only as good as your estimate
Positive EV does not mean a bet will win, and the result of a single bet says nothing about whether the estimate was right. If your probabilities are optimistic, every EV you calculate will be too. Track your estimates against real results over many picks, like a public record does, before trusting them.
Educational content for adults aged 18 and over. Past results do not guarantee future outcomes. These tools describe arithmetic, not betting strategies or investment advice.
Give the numbers a record.
Explore creators and their public records, or start publishing your sports analysis in the app.